Transaction × Progress Data — Cross-Verified
95% of converters decide within 7 days — the trial window is essentially a 1-week decision.
Login count during the trial is the clearest purchase intent signal available. Non-converters barely touched the product.
| Logins during trial | Users | % of non-converters |
|---|---|---|
| 0 logins | 4 | 0.1% |
| 1–3 logins | 2,775 | 74.8% |
| 4–10 logins | 805 | 21.7% |
| 10+ logins | 124 | 3.3% |
Of the 7,018 who converted, how far did they go in both the program and billing?
More logins = higher progress = higher active rate. The 20-login threshold is the activation inflection point.
| Logins | Users | Avg Progress | Active Rate | Avg Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 2,365 | 4.7% | 16% | $274 |
| 6–20 | 4,583 | 21.0% | 24% | $290 |
| 21–50 | 3,536 | 50.5% | 29% | $365 |
| 51–100 | 1,379 | 64.8% | 35% | $433 |
| 100+ | 444 | 67.9% | 59% | $482 |
Higher progress users spend significantly more. Getting users to 50%+ is a revenue event, not just a product metric.
| Progress Stage | Users | Avg Logins | Avg Spend | Avg Payments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3,065 | 5.6 | $300 | 3.0 |
| 11–25% | 2,768 | 15.4 | $303 | 3.1 |
| 26–50% | 2,624 | 34.6 | $344 | 3.6 |
| 51–75% | 2,574 | 55.1 | $365 | 4.4 |
| 76–100% | 1,277 | 78.1 | $400 | 5.1 |
Critical — Revenue declining while acquisition slows
MRR has dropped 27% from its $373K peak as new member intake fell from 1,175/month to 494, while churn holds at ~870/month. The business is mathematically shrinking. Immediate levers: reactivate paid acquisition, improve early onboarding to cut 30-day churn, and fix the failed payment dunning sequence (which alone could recover $24–32K/mo at peak).
Critical — 49% of churned paying users left within 90 days
Half of all churned paying members are gone before they reach month 3. At an avg CPA of $233, these members never generate positive ROI. A focused first-90-day experience — a structured onboarding track, day-7/day-14/day-30 email sequences, and a quick-win module in the first session — could meaningfully shift this. Even extending average retention by 1 month would add ~$97 in LTV per customer, worth ~$840K annually at current acquisition volume.
Priority — 20 logins is the engagement activation threshold
Users with 21–50 logins average 50.5% progress and a 29% active rate. Users with 1–5 logins average 4.7% progress and a 16% active rate. The gap between these groups is enormous. Any product mechanic that pushes new users past their 20th login — a streak tracker, weekly check-in email, short daily module, or progress milestone notification — is likely the single highest-ROI product investment available.
Priority — 48.6% of paying users never reach 25% of the program
Nearly half of all paying customers stop before the first quarter of the program. These aren't people who tried it and moved on — they paid $99/mo and barely started. The first few modules are either too intimidating, too long, or not delivering an early enough win. A short "starter track" (3–5 modules) designed to create a felt result in the first 2 weeks would address the largest single dropout moment in the product.
Opportunity — Alumni members are the best customers you have
Alumni members have 2.6× more program progress, 3.8× more logins, 54% higher active rate, and 70% higher median LTV than standard members. The downgrade to $39 isn't a loss of value — it's a self-selection of your most committed users. Proactively offering the alumni rate to standard members approaching their 3-month mark (before they churn) could convert voluntary cancellations into $39/mo alumni, adding ~$468/yr per converted member.
Opportunity — Higher progress drives higher revenue
Users who reach 76–100% of the program average $400 in total spend and 5.1 payments, vs. $300 and 3.0 payments for users stuck at 0–10%. Getting users to 50%+ isn't just a product metric — it is a revenue metric. Every percentage point of engagement improvement compounds into higher LTV. Progress milestones, celebration moments, and community features that reward advancement all have direct measurable revenue impact.
Critical — Trial conversion fell from 85% to 51% as volume tripled
In May–July 2025, CBT converted 84–86% of trials with modest volume (~700–800/month). By September–October 2025, trial volume tripled to 1,200–1,366/month — but conversion dropped to 51–55%. This is a textbook lead quality dilution: scaling ad spend brought in more trials but lower-intent users. The September 2025 period (highest trial volume, lowest conversion) likely marks when acquisition targeting broadened significantly. Tightening audience targeting even at the cost of fewer total trials may improve net paid conversions.
Priority — 74.8% of non-converters had only 1–3 logins
The vast majority of trial users who didn't convert barely engaged with the product — they signed up but didn't return. This means the barrier to conversion isn't pricing or program length, it's the first-session experience. A user who logs in 3+ times during their trial is far more likely to convert. A triggered "come back" email on day 2–3 for users who haven't returned since signup, paired with a specific module recommendation, could meaningfully recover a portion of the 3,746 users who never converted.